Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern
Help
 

GeoTreesearch


Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

(1.4 MB)

Title: Accuracy of 24- and 48-Hour Forecasts of Haines' Index

Author: Potter, Brian E.; Martin, Jonathan E.

Date: 2001

Source: National Wheather Digest 25(3,4):38-46

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: The University of Wisconsin-Madison produces Web-accessible, 24- and 48-hour forecasts of the Haines Index (a tool used to measure the atmospheric potential for large wildfire development) for most of North America using its nonhydrostatic modeling system. The authors examined the accuracy of these forecasts using data from 1999 and 2000. Measures used include root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean error (ME), percent misforecast (PM), correlation between error and observed Index value, and Kuiper skill score (K). Average values of these measures indicate that the model forecasts are typically too low (RMSE = 0.74, ME = -0.01 for 24-hour forecasts), about a third (PM=38%) of the point forecasts for the year were misforecast, but that the forecasts are more accurate than random forecasts (K = 0.48). The correlation between error and observed value shows that, in general, the model's predictions are a bit too extreme, pushing the Index values to the ends of the spectrum. Statistics for 48-hour forecasts were similar to those for 24-hour forecasts, indicating that errors arose primarily during the first 24-hours of forecast simulations. Monthly values of the accuracy statistics show winter forecasts to be most accurate and summer forecasts to be least accurate.

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
  • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, shobrla@fs.fed.us if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Potter, Brian E.; Martin, Jonathan E. 2001. Accuracy of 24- and 48-Hour Forecasts of Haines'' Index. National Wheather Digest 25(3,4):38-46

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.