Title: Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change
Author: Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; O'Connor, Raymond J.; O'Connor, Raymond J.
Source: Ecology. 87(7): 1611-1615.
Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
Description: Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that extinction vulnerability increases with decreasing distribution size. We also found that model fit decreases with decreasing distribution size, resulting in high prediction uncertainty among narrowly distributed species. High prediction uncertainty creates a conservation dilemma in that excluding these species under-predicts extinction risk and favors mistaken inaction on global warming. By contrast, including narrow endemics results in overpredicting extinction risk and promotes mistaken inaction on behalf of individual species prematurely considered doomed to extinction.
Keywords: climate and environmental models, climate change, distribution breadth, eastern United States, endemic, extinction, prediction uncertainty, regression tree, vulnerability
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
XML: View XML
Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Matthews, Stephen N.; O''Connor, Raymond J. 2006. Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology. 87(7): 1611-1615.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility