Forest Products Laboratory

Title: Projecting technological change

Author: Skog, Kenneth E.

Date: 2007

Source: Resource and market projections for forest policy development : twenty-five years of experience with the U.S. RPA timber assessment. Dordrecht, The Netherlands : Springer, c2007. Managing forest ecosystems ; v. 14: pages 489-511

Description: Improving efficiency in the use of both wood and nonwood inputs has characterized the US forest sector over the last 50 years. This chapter explores methods used to reflect this pattern of technological change and others in the Timber Assessment Projection System models. The development and use of three types of technology projection methods are explained: (1) decomposition of technology into several processes and projection of future mixes of processes to make exogenous projections of technology change for harvesting costs and for solidwood products recovery and processing costs in TAMM; (2) activity analysis that uses alternate technologies capable of changing fiber input mixes to make endogenous projections of technology change for pulp, paper, and paperboard production in NAPAP; and (3) innovation diffusion modeling to endogenously project the change in wood-use rates in major end uses such as housing in TAMM. We provide an example of a sensitivity testing in a case where technology projections were made exogenously. Finally we discuss lessons learned and points to consider when deciding the type of technology projection methods to use.

Keywords: Particle board, plywood, lumber trade, economic aspects, lumber, marketing, paperboard industry, forecasting, paper industry, supply, demand, forest products industry, market surveys, forest products, technological innovations, technological innovations, economic forecasting, consumption, softwoods, oriented strandboard, OSB

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Citation

Skog, Kenneth E.  2007.  Projecting technological change.   Resource and market projections for forest policy development : twenty-five years of experience with the U.S. RPA timber assessment. Dordrecht, The Netherlands : Springer, c2007. Managing forest ecosystems ; v. 14: pages 489-511.