Title: Combining a generic process-based productivity model classification method to predict the presence and absence species in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A
Author: Coops, Nicholas C.; Waring, Richard H.; Schroeder, Todd A.
Source: Ecological Modelling. 220: 1787-1796.
Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication
Description: Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions.We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species' distribution,we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species' presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services' Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species' distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.
Keywords: 3-PG model, Regression-tree analysis, Climate change, US Forest Inventory and Analysis, Sitka spruce, Ponderosa pine, Western juniper, Lodgepole pine, Douglas-fir, Western hemlock
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- You may send email to firstname.lastname@example.org to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
XML: View XML
Coops, Nicholas C.; Waring, Richard H.; Schroeder, Todd A. 2009. Combining a generic process-based productivity model classification method to predict the presence and absence species in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. Ecological Modelling. 220: 1787-1796.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility