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Publication Information

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Title: Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Author: Cooley, David M; Galik, Chrsitopher S; Holmes, Thomas P; Kousky, Carolyn ; Cooke, Roger M

Date: 2011

Source: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible.

Keywords: Carbon offsets, Climate policy, Forestry, Natural disturbance, Risk

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

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Cooley, David M; Galik, Chrsitopher S; Holmes, Thomas P; Kousky, Carolyn ; Cooke, Roger M 2011. Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. DOI 10.1007/s11027-011-9306-x.

 


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