Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern
Help
 

GeoTreesearch


Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

(3.5 MB)

Title: Applying survival analysis to managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine for assessment of tree mortality in the western United States

Author: Uzoh, Fabian; Mori, Sylvia R.

Date: 2012

Source: Forest Ecology Management. 285: 101-122

Publication Series: Journal/Magazine Article (JRNL)

Description: A critical component of a growth and yield simulator is an estimate of mortality rates. The mortality models presented here are developed from long-term permanent plots in provinces from throughout the geographic range of ponderosa pine in the United States extending from the Black Hills of South Dakota to the Pacific Coast. The study had two objectives: estimation of the probability of a tree survival for the next 5 years and the probability of a tree surviving longer than a given time period (survival trend) for a given set of covariates. The probability of a tree surviving for the next 5 years was estimated using a logistic model regressed on 18 covariates measured 5 years before the last measurement period with 15 smoothing variables (S1–S15) for spatial effects of latitude and longitude surface. The fitted model showed that the probability of survival increased with increasing diameter at breast height (DBH), DBH periodic annual increment (PAIDBH) and increasing plot basal area/number of trees per hectare (PBAH/TPH), and decreased with increasing average of the 5 tallest trees in the plot (AVGHT5) when other selected covariates were included in the model. The probability of a tree surviving longer than a given time period was estimated by fitting the Cox Proportional Hazard model to the last observed survival period regressed on 13 covariates measured at the first measurement period. This probability also increased with increasing DBH and PAIDBH, and decreased with increasing AVGHT5. The Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and graphs of partial residuals were used in the selection of covariates included in the models.

Keywords: Cox Proportional Hazard model, Probability of survival, Tree mortality, Pinus ponderosa, Logistic regression, Generalized Additive Model (GAM)

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Uzoh, Fabian, C.C.; Mori, Sylvia R. 2012. Applying survival analysis to managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine for assessment of tree mortality in the western United States. Forest Ecology Management. 285: 101-122.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.