You are here: Home
/ Publication Information
Title: Optimal strategies for the surveillance and control of forest pathogens: A case study with oak wilt
Author: Horie, Tetsuya; Haight, Robert G.; Homans, Frances R.; Venette, Robert C.
Source: Ecological Economics. 86:78-85.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: Cost-effective strategies are needed to find and remove diseased trees in forests damaged by pathogens. We develop a model of cost-minimizing surveillance and control of forest pathogens across multiple sites where there is uncertainty about the extent of the infestation in each site and when the goal is to minimize the expected number of new infections. We allow for a heterogeneous landscape, where grid cells may be differentiated by the number of trees, the expected number of infected trees, rates of infection growth, and costs of surveillance and control. In our application to oak wilt in Anoka County, Minnesota, USA, we develop a cost curve associated with saving healthy trees from infection. Assuming an annual infection growth rate of 8%, a $1 million budget would save an expected 185 trees from infection for an average of $5400 per tree. We investigate how more precise prior estimates of disease and reduced detection sensitivity affect model performance. We evaluate rules of thumb, finding that prioritizing sites with high proportions of infected trees is best. Our model provides practical guidance about the spatial allocation of surveillance and control resources for well-studied forest pathogens when only modest information about their geographic distribution is available.
Keywords: forest pathogens, surveillance, optimal management, uncertainty, Ceratocystis fagacearum
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
XML: View XML
Horie, Tetsuya; Haight, Robert G.; Homans, Frances R.; Venette, Robert C. 2013. Optimal strategies for the surveillance and control of forest pathogens: A case study with oak wilt. Ecological Economics. 86:78-85.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility