Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern
Help
 

GeoTreesearch


Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

(791 KB)

Title: Modeling the effects of dispersal and patch size on predicted fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) distribution in the U.S. Rocky Mountains

Author: Olson, Lucretia E.; Sauder, Joel D.; Albrecht, Nathan M.; Vinkey, Ray S.; Cushman, Samuel A.; Schwartz, Michael K.

Date: 2014

Source: Biological Conservation. 169: 89-98

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Climate change impacts many species through shifts in habitat. The intensity of this impact will depend on the dispersal rates of the species, the patchiness of the environment, and the velocity of habitat change. Here we examine how dispersal affects projected future habitat availability for a threatened carnivore, the fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti). We used non-invasive genetic sampling to detect fisher across their historical distribution in Montana and Idaho. This survey included 4846 non-invasive hair snares, of which 288 identified fishers through mitochondrial DNA analysis. We modeled the distribution of fisher across western Montana and northern Idaho using a suite of vegetative, topographic, and climatic variables. We modeled future distribution using a global climate model and two climate change scenarios (high emissions [A2] or reduced emissions [B2]) and three time steps (2030, 2060, and 2090). We incorporated the effects of dispersal ability and habitat patch size into our model by varying the distance and enforcing a minimum patch size at which newly created habitat could be colonized. We found that the probability of current fisher occurrence was highest given the presence of mesic forest types with tall trees, high annual precipitation, and mid-range winter temperatures. Future predictions show an increase in area of high-probability habitat under most dispersal assumptions. Interestingly, we found a large contrast in results when minimum patch size and species dispersal capabilities were considered. Our distribution model with full dispersal and no limits on patch size predicted a 24.5% increase in fisher habitat by 2090, whereas a dispersal limit of 1 km through non-habitat (agricultural fields and urban zones) and a minimum patch size yielded a loss of 25.8% of fisher habitat under this same scenario. Varying dispersal appears to limit habitat availability more than minimum patch size under most scenarios.

Keywords: climate change colonization, fishers, Pekania pennanti, species distribution model, dispersal, patch size

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Olson, Lucretia E.; Sauder, Joel D.; Albrecht, Nathan M.; Vinkey, Ray S.; Cushman, Samuel A.; Schwartz, Michael K. 2014. Modeling the effects of dispersal and patch size on predicted fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) distribution in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Biological Conservation. 169: 89-98.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.