Title: Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services
Author: Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R.; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Subburayalu, Sakthi.
Source: Landscape Ecology. 29(2): 213-228.
Publication Series: Journal/Magazine Article (JRNL)
Description: Forests provide key ecosystem services (ES) and the extent to which the ES are realized varies spatially, with forest composition and cultural context, and in breadth, depending on the dominant tree species inhabiting an area. We address the question of how climate change may impact ES within the temperate and diverse forests of the eastern United States. We quantify the vulnerability to changes in forest habitat by 2100, based on the overall pressures of community change from an aggregation of current and potential future habitats for 134 tree species at each of 149 US Department of Defense installations. To do so, we derive an index, Forest-Related Index of Climate Vulnerability, composed of several indicators of vulnerability for each site. Further, a risk matrix (likelihood x consequences) provides a visual cue to compare vulnerabilities among species (example from Pennsylvania) or among sites [example for Acer saccharum (sugar maple) in Vermont vs. Kentucky]. Potential changes in specific ES can then be qualitatively examined. For example in Pennsylvania, the loss of the provisioning services (wood products) of Prunus serotina (black cherry) and Fraxinus americana (white ash) habitat projected for the future will not likely be compensated for by concomitant increases in Juniperus virginiana (redcedar) and Pinus echinata (shortleaf pine) habitat. Taken together, this approach provides a conceptual framework that allows for consideration of how potential changes in tree species habitats, as impacted by climate change, can be combined to explore relative changes in important ES that forests provide.
Keywords: Climate change, Ecosystem services, Trees, Eastern United States, Forest composition, Prediction
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, email@example.com if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
XML: View XML
Matthews, Stephen N.; Iverson, Louis R.; Peters, Matthew P.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Subburayalu, Sakthi. 2014. Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services. Landscape Ecology. 29(2): 213-228.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility