Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

GeoTreesearch


Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

(616 KB bytes)

Title: Spatio-temporal wildland arson crime functions

Author: Butry, David T.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.

Date: 2005

Source: Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Providence, Rhode Island, July 24-27, 2005: American Agricultural Economics Association: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=16442&ftype=.pdf, 28 p.

Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication

Description: Wildland arson creates damages to structures and timber and affects the health and safety of people living in rural and wildland urban interface areas. We develop a model that incorporates temporal autocorrelations and spatial correlations in wildland arson ignitions in Florida. A Poisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model, is estimated for six high arson Census tracts in the state for the period 1994-2001. Spatio-temporal lags of wildland arson ignitions are introduced as dummy variables indicating the presence of an ignition in previous days in surrounding Census tracts and counties. Temporal lags of ignition activity within the Census tract are shown to be statistically significant and larger than previously reported for non-spatial variants of the PAR(p) model. Spatio-temporal lagged relationships with current arson that are statistically significant show that arson activity up to a county away explains arson patterns, and spatio-temporal lags longer than two days were not significant. Other variables showing significance include weather and wildfire activity in the previous six years, but prescribed fire and several variables that provide evidence that such activity is consistent with an economic model of crime were less commonly significant.

Keywords: Arson, Poisson, Spatial, Temporal, Green Crime, Wildfire

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • You may send email to pubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)

XML: View XML

Citation:


Butry, David T.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P. 2005. Spatio-temporal wildland arson crime functions. Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Providence, Rhode Island, July 24-27, 2005: American Agricultural Economics Association: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu/cgi-bin/pdf_view.pl?paperid=16442&ftype=.pdf, 28 p.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.