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Title: Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing

Author: Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Prasad, Anantha M.;

Date: 2000

Source: Ecosystems. 4: 568-581.

Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication

Description: We investigated the effect of habitat loss on the ability of trees to shift in distribution across a landscape dominated by agriculture. The potential distribution shifts of four tree species (Diospyros virginiana, Oxydendron arboreum, Pinus virginiana, Quercus falcata var. falcata) whose northern distribution limits fall in the southern third of Ohio were used to assess possible distribution shift scenarios as a result of global warming. Our predictions derive from the results of simulations using (a) forest inventory based estimates of current distribution and abundance of target species; (b) a satellite-based estimate of forest habitat availability; and (c) a tree migration model (SHIFT). The current distribution and abundance of trees was estimated using USDA Forest Service?s Forest Inventory Analysis data and distribution maps from the late 1960s; pre-European settlement forest?nonforest maps were used to represent the fully forested condition for calibration and comparison. Habitat-availability estimates in Ohio were estimated using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data from 1994. Tree abundance, forest availability and migration were modeled using a 1-km2 pixel size. Forest availability was estimated as the proportion of forested TM pixels within each cell. The probability of a migrating species colonizing an unoccupied cell is modeled as a function of forest availability and distance to occupied cells.

Keywords: migration, climate change, trees, oak, pine, distribution, habitat loss

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Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M. 2000. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems. 4: 568-581.


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