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Title: A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics

Author: Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Rideout, Douglas B.;

Date: 2003

Source: Forest Science. 49(2): 318-323

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: The Cost plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model provides the theoretical foundation for wildland fire economics and provides the basis for the National Fire Management Analysis System (NFMAS). The C+NVC model is based on the earlier least Cost plus Loss model (LC+L) expressed by Sparhawk (1925). Mathematical and graphical analysis of the LC+L model illustrates two errors in model formulation. First, suppression is incorrectly modeled as a model output. Second, suppression and primary protection are incorrectly modeled as negatively correlated. These errors are shown to be perpetuated by the contemporary C+NVC model and to have serious implications for the model's capacity to correctly identify the most efficient level of fire management expenditure. A corrected graphical representation of the C+NVC model is presented, which allows the most efficient level of fire management expenditure to be correctly identified.

Keywords: Economics, fire, cost plus net value change

Publication Notes:

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Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Rideout, Douglas B. 2003. A reformulation of the Cost Plus Net Value Change (C+NVC) model of wildfire economics. Forest Science. 49(2): 318-323


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