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Title: Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Author: McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Darius M.; Alig, Ralph J.; Burton, Diana; Chen, Chi-Chung.;

Date: 2000

Source: Climate Research. 15: 195-205

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic forest sector model and results are summarized in response functions that may be used instead of rerunning the model as improved or altered biological response scenarios arise. The response functions are used to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sector. We find that aggregate impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively small but that producers income and future welfare 30 to 40 yr in the future are most at risk. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution in consumption, and altered stand management.

Keywords: climate change, US forest, sector analysis, response function

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

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McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Darius M.; Alig, Ralph J.; Burton, Diana; Chen, Chi-Chung. 2000. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator. Climate Research. 15: 195-205

 


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