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Title: Accuracy of National Weather Service wind-direction forecasts at Macon and Augusta, Georgia

Author: Lavdas, Leonidas G.;

Date: 1997

Source: National Weather Digest. 22(1): 22-26.

Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication

Description: National Weather Service wind forecasts and observations over a nine-year period (1985 to 1993) were analyzed to determine the usefulness of these forecasts for forestry smoke management. Data from Macon, GA indicated that forecasts were accurate to within plus or minus 22.5E about 38 percent of the time. When a wider plus or minus 67.5E window was used, accuracy increased to about 79 percent. When forecast wind speeds were 15 mph or more, forecast wind direction improved in accuracy by about 15 percent. Some bias was present in wind-direction forecasts. Errors of 22.5 to 67.5E to the left of the forecast direction (one semiquadrant left) were more common than similar errors to the right. This bias is most pronounced for forecasts verifying at night, with leftward errors occurring up to 2.5 times more frequently than rightward errors. The bias was much less during 1985 to 1986 than during later years. Some wind directions were forecast more accurately and with less bias than others. Limited data at Augusta, GA showed forecast accuracy and bias were generally similar to that at Macon. Forecast performance for specific wind directions varied considerably between Macon and Augusta.

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Lavdas, Leonidas G. 1997. Accuracy of National Weather Service wind-direction forecasts at Macon and Augusta, Georgia. National Weather Digest. 22(1): 22-26.


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