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Title: Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Author: Marcot, B.G.; Steventon, J.D.; Sutherland, G.D.; McCann, R.K.;

Date: 2006

Source: Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 36: 3063-3074

Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication

Description: We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model after expert review; testing and calibrating the model with case files to create a beta-level model; and updating the model structure and conditional probabilities with new validation data, creating the final-application gamma-level model. We illustrate and discuss these steps with an empirically based BBN model of factors influencing probability of capture of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus (Shaw)).

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, model development, modeling guidelines, northern flying squirrel

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Marcot, B.G.; Steventon, J.D.; Sutherland, G.D.; McCann, R.K. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 36: 3063-3074

 


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