Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (146 KB)

Title: Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

Author: Polyakov, Maksym; Wear, David N;

Date: 2010

Source: Forest Science 56(4):344-355

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to detailed forest inventories. These models allow for a more precise accounting of the biological and economic underpinnings of supply and support forecasting of changes in forest inventories with a high degree of detail. Estimation results support use of the approach. The elasticities of softwood and hardwood sawtimber supply, 0.34 and 0.31, respectively, are consistent with the elasticities reported by previous studies. The elasticities of softwood and hardwood pulpwood supply (respectively, 0.062 and 0.025) are much lower than previous studies found for pulpwood supply, and cross-price elasticities indicate a dominant influence of sawtimber markets on pulpwood supply. Results generally indicate complementarity between sawtimber and pulpwood supply in the short run. This approach can provide a means of predicting the supply consequences of exogenous factors that could alter forest inventories, e.g., climate change and invasive species, and support regular updating of supply models as new inventory data are recorded.

Keywords: conditional logit, elasticity, expectations, simulation

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Polyakov, Maksym; Wear, David N 2010. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting. Forest Science 56(4):344-355.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.