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Publication Information

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Title: Medium-range fire weather forecasts

Author: Roads, J.O.; Ueyoshi, K.; Chen, S.C.; Alpert, J.; Fujioka, F.;

Date: 1991

Source: Int. J. Wildland Fire. 1(3): 159-176

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has a wet bias during the winter and a slight dry bias during the summer, which has noticeable impact on forecasts of the derived fire weather index. The FWI forecasts are also strongly affected by near-surface wind forecast errors. Still, skillful forecasts of the fire weather index as well as the other relevant fire weather variables are made out to about 10 days. These forecasts could be utilized more extensively by fire weather forecasters.

Keywords: Fire weather, Forecasting, GCMs, Medium-range

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.



Roads, J.O.; Ueyoshi, K.; Chen, S.C.; Alpert, J.; Fujioka, F. 1991. Medium-range fire weather forecasts. Int. J. Wildland Fire 1(3): 159-176.


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