Title: Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure
Author: Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Marcille, Kate;
Source: Natural Hazards. 64(1): 707-728.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: The occurrence of wildfires within municipal watersheds can result in significant impacts to water quality and ultimately human health and safety. In this paper, we illustrate the application of geospatial analysis and burn probability modeling to assess the exposure of municipal watersheds to wildfire. Our assessment of wildfire exposure consists of two primary components: (1) wildfire hazard, which we characterize with burn probability, fireline intensity, and a composite index, and (2) geospatial intersection of watershed polygons with spatially resolved wildfire hazard metrics. This effort enhances investigation into spatial patterns of fire occurrence and behavior and enables quantitative comparisons of exposure across watersheds on the basis of a novel, integrated measure of wildfire hazard. As a case study, we consider the municipal watersheds located on the Beaverhead- Deerlodge National Forest (BDNF) in Montana, United States. We present simulation results to highlight exposure across watersheds and generally demonstrate vast differences in fire likelihood, fire behavior, and expected area burned among the analyzed municipal watersheds. We describe how this information can be incorporated into risk-based strategic fuels management planning and across the broader wildfire management spectrum. To conclude, we discuss strengths and limitations of our approach and offer potential future expansions.
Keywords: wildfire, hazard analysis, exposure analysis, fire modeling, municipal watersheds
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
XML: View XML
Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Marcille, Kate. 2012. Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure. Natural Hazards. 64(1): 707-728.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility