Title: Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world
Author: Cuddington, K.; Fortin, M.-J.; Gerber, L.R.; Hastings, A.; Liebhold, A.; OConnor, M.; Ray, C.;
Source: Ecosphere. 4(2). dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES12-00178.1
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered environmental conditions. As a result, these models can offer significant advantages in predicting the effects of global change as compared to purely statistical or rule-based models based on previously collected data. Process-based models also offer more explicitly stated assumptions and easier interpretation than detailed simulation models. We provide guidelines for identifying the appropriate type of model and level of complexity for management decisions. Finally we outline some of those factors that make modeling for local and regional management under global change a particular challenge: changes to relevant scales and processes, additional sources of uncertainty, legacy effects, threshold dynamics, and socio-economic impacts.
Keywords: climate change, expert opinion, extrapolation, simulation model
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
XML: View XML
Cuddington, K.; Fortin, M.-J.; Gerber, L.R.; Hastings, A.; Liebhold, A.; OConnor, M.; Ray, C. 2013. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world. Ecosphere. 4(2). dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES12-00178.1
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility