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Publication Information

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Title: A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management

Author: Miller, Carol; Ager, Alan A.;

Date: 2012

Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 1-14.

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyze the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk – likelihood, intensity and effects – this paper reviews recent advances in quantifying and integrating these individual components of fire risk. We also review recent advances in addressing temporal dynamics of fire risk and spatial optimization of fuels management activities. Risk analysis approaches have become increasingly quantitative and sophisticated but remain quite disparate. We suggest several necessary and fruitful directions for future research and development in wildfire risk analysis.

Keywords: burn probability, fire likelihood, hazard, risk assessment, risk assessment and analysis, risk science, technical reports and journal articles

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.



Miller, Carol; Ager, Alan A. 2012. A review of recent advances in risk analysis for wildfire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 1-14.


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