Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (322 KB)

Title: Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy

Author: Keeting, Adriana; Handmer, John;

Date: 2013

Source: In: González-Cabán, Armando, tech. coord. Proceedings of the fourth international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: climate change and wildfires. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-245 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: 147-151

Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)

   Note: This article is part of a larger document. View the larger document

Description: South-eastern Australia is one of the most fire prone environments on earth. Devastating fires in February 2009 appear to have been off the charts climatically and economically, they led to a new category of fire danger aptly called 'catastrophic'. Almost all wildfire losses have been associated with these extreme conditions and climate change will see an increase in these catastrophic fire danger days. Estimating the economic impacts of these fires is a key input into climate change adaptation decision-making for three key reasons: 1) a fattening of the tail of the fire disaster probability distribution, is widely held to be a significant climate change impact; 2) extrapolating current bushfire costs assumed to be a convenient and straightforward starting point for adaptation cost estimation, however a paucity of data means this assumption is over ambitious; and 3) fire disaster risk reduction is a low-regrets climate change adaptation policy, meaning it is believed to have a positive net benefits regardless of the actual future climate scenario, thereby bypassing the risks associated with uncertainty regarding future climate. This focus poses key challenges for fire economics in regards to full valuation of disaster impacts, particularly in regard to indirect and intangible impacts. Furthermore, extrapolating current impact estimates under future climatic and sociodemographic conditions is complicated by nonlinearity in the damage function with the majority of damages occurring during extreme conditions, changes to which are less certain than projections regarding means.

Keywords: adaptation, bushfire, climate change, damage function, extremes, wildfire

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Keeting, Adriana; Handmer, John. 2013. Catastrophic fat tails and non-smooth damage functions-fire economics and climate change adaptation for public policy. In: González-Cabán, Armando, tech. coord. Proceedings of the fourth international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: climate change and wildfires. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-245 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: 147-151.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.