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Title: Using simulations and data to evaluate mean sensitivity (ζ) as a useful statistic in dendrochronology

Author: Bunn, Andrew G.; Jansma, Esther; Korpela, Mikko; Westfall, Robert D.; Baldwin, James;

Date: 2013

Source: Dendrochronologia 31(3): 250-254

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Mean sensitivity (ζ) continues to be used in dendrochronology despite a literature that shows it to be of questionable value in describing the properties of a time series. We simulate first-order autoregressive models with known parameters and show that ζ is a function of variance and autocorrelation of a time series. We then use 500 random tree-ring data sets with unknown parameters and show that ζ is at best equivalent to the standard deviation of a time series in cases without high autocorrelation and is an inefficient estimator of the coefficient of variation. It is hard to justify the use of ζ as a useful, descriptive statistic in dendrochronology on theoretical or empirical grounds. It is better to make a thorough evaluation of the time series properties of a data set and we suggest various avenues for doing so including some that are maybe unfamiliar to most dendrochronologists including generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models.

Keywords: Time-series model, Autocorrelation

Publication Notes:

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Bunn, Andrew G.; Jansma, Esther; Korpela, Mikko; Westfall, Robert D.;Baldwin, James. 2013. Using simulations and data to evaluate mean sensitivity (ζ) as a useful statistic in dendrochronology. Dendrochronologia 31(3): 250-254. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2013.01.004.

 


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