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Title: Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century
Author: Bedel, Anthony P.; Mote, Thomas L.; Goodrick, Scott L.;
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of a warmer climate in the 21st century on relevant meteorological fire parameters (e.g. total and convective precipitation, 500-hPa geopotential heights, near-surface relative humidity) and popular fire indices (e.g. Haines and Keetch–Byram Drought Indices) in the south-eastern US. Although the results offered conflicting implications in portions of the study domain, the southern half of the south-eastern US (including the Deep South, the southern Piedmont and Florida) exhibited the highest potential for increasing fire activity in the mid-21st century, given maximum warming and drying in these areas, especially in the spring season.
Keywords: forest fires, Haines Index, KBDI.
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Bedel, Anthony P.; Mote, Thomas L.; Goodrick, Scott L. 2013. Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century. International Journal of Wildland Fire 2013, 22, 1034–1043. 10 p.
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