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Title: Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models.

Author: Chen, Xuan; Goodwin, Barry K.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.;

Date: 2014

Source: American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(1):213-231

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: In the U.S. forest products industry, wildfire is one of the leading causes of damage and economic losses. While individual wildfire behavior is well studied, new literature is emerging on broad-scale (e.g., county-level) wildfire risks. Our paper studies wildfire risks using crucial informational vari­ ables across both spatio units and time periods. Several statistical models are used to quantify the risks. We develop several maximum likelihood estimation methods to account for spatio-­ temporal auto-correlation in conditional risks. A group index insurance scheme is proposed, and its associated actuarially fair premium rates are estimated and presented. Implications for wildfire management policies are also discussed.

Keywords: wildfire, index insurance, spatia-temporal correlation

Publication Notes:

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  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.

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Chen, Xuan; Goodwin, Barry K.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P. 2014. Is timber insurable? A study of wildfire Risks in the U.S. forest sector using spatio-temporal models. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(1):213-231. 19 p.

 


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