You are here: Home
/ Publication Information
Title: Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens
Author: Kretchun, Alec M.; Scheller, Robert M.; Lucash, Melissa S.; Clark, Kenneth L.; Hom, John; Van Tuyl, Steve; Fine, Michael L.;
Source: PLoS ONE. 9(8): e102531.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 emissions scenario). Our results suggest that long-term changes in C cycling will be driven more by climate change than by fire or gypsy moths over the next century. We also found that simulated disturbances will affect species composition more than tree growth or C sequestration rates at the landscape level. Projected changes in tree species biomass indicate a potential increase in oaks with climate change and gypsy moth defoliation over the course of the 100-year simulation, exacerbating current successional trends towards increased oak abundance. Our research suggests that defoliation under climate change may play a critical role in increasing the variability of tree growth rates and in determining landscape species composition over the next 100 years.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
- Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, firstname.lastname@example.org if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.
XML: View XML
Kretchun, Alec M.; Scheller, Robert M.; Lucash, Melissa S.; Clark, Kenneth L.; Hom, John; Van Tuyl, Steve; Fine, Michael L. 2014. Predicted effects of gypsy moth defoliation and climate change on forest carbon dynamics in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. PLoS ONE. 9(8): e102531.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility