Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (359 KB)

Title: Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

Author: Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ducey, Mark;

Date: 2015

Source: In Venette, RC (ed.); Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. CABI, Wallingford, UK. 14: 206-222

Publication Series: Book Chapter

Description: Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our methodology borrows basic concepts from portfolio valuation theory that were originally developed for the allocation of financial investments under uncertainty. In our case, we treat the model-based estimates of a pest invasion at individual geographical locations as analogous to a set of individual investment asset types that constitute a ‘portfolio.’ We then estimate the highest levels of pest invasion risk by finding the subset of geographical locations with the ‘worst’ combinations of a high likelihood of invasion and/or high uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. We illustrate the technique using a case study that applies a spatial pest transmission model to assess the likelihood that Canadian municipalities will receive invasive forest insects with commercial freight transported via trucks. The approach provides a viable strategy for dealing with the typical lack of knowledge about the behaviour of new invasive species and generally high uncertainty in model based forecasts of ecological invasions. The technique is especially useful for undertaking comparative risk assessments such as identification of geographical hot spots of pest invasion risk in large landscapes, or assessments for multiple species and alternative pest management options.

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • You may send email to pubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)

XML: View XML

Citation:


Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ducey, Mark 2015. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences. In Venette, RC (ed.); Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. CABI, Wallingford, UK. 14: 206-222. 17 p.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.