You are here: Home
/ Publication Information
Title: Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities
Author: Vano, Julie A.; Kim, John B.; Rupp, David E.; Mote, Philip W.;
Source: Geophysical Research Letters. 42(13): 5516-5525.
Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)
Description: Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest.We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
XML: View XML
Vano, Julie A.; Kim, John B.; Rupp, David E.; Mote, Philip W. 2015. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities. Geophysical Research Letters. 42(13): 5516-5525.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility