Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service

Research & Development Treesearch

Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help - We Participate  Government Made Easy

Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (264 KB bytes)

Title: Understanding Broadscale Wildfire Risks in a Human-Dominated Landscape

Author: Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Pye, John M.; Butry, David T.; Holmes, Thomas P.; Mercer, D. Evan;

Date: 2002

Source: Forest Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, November 2002. p. 685-693

Publication Series: Miscellaneous Publication

Description: Broadscale statistical evaluations of wildfire incidence can answer policy relevant questions about the effectiveness of microlevel vegetation management and can identify subjects needing further study. A dynamic time series cross-sectional model was used to evaluate the statistical links between forest wildfire and vegetation management, human land use, and climatic factors in Florida counties. Four forest wildfire risk functions were estimated: one for fires regardless of ignition source, and three others for fires of specific ignition sources: arson, lightning, and accident (unintentional anthropogenic). Results suggest that current wildfire risk is negatively related to several years of past wildfire and very recent site prep burning, and risk is positively related to pulpwood removals. The effect of traditional prescribed burning on wildfire risk varies by ignition source. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were also significantly linked to forest wildfire risk, but a measure of the wildland-urban interface was not significant. Although these county-level results hold promise for aggregate risk assessment, modeling at finer spatial and temporal scales might further enhance our understanding of how land managers can best reduce the longer term risk of catastrophic wildfire damages.

Keywords: Vegetation management, wildfire production, wildland-urban interface, El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • You may send email to to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)



Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Pye, John M.; Butry, David T.; Holmes, Thomas P.; Mercer, D. Evan 2002. Understanding Broadscale Wildfire Risks in a Human-Dominated Landscape. Forest Science, Vol. 48, No. 4, November 2002. p. 685-693


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.