You are here: Home
/ Publication Information
Title: Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers’ risk aversion
Author: Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Haack, Robert A.;
Source: Wallingford, UK: Biosecurity Surveillance Quantitative Approaches CABI Publishing.
Publication Series: Book Chapter
Description: Pest risk maps are an important source of decision support when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e. risk-averse) course of action. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. We demonstrate the approach by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the continental US states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood that may be carried by visitors to US federal campgrounds. We test the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritize regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employ, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporates the notion of risk aversion. We then identify regions in the study area where incorporating risk aversion changes a region’s pest risk value considerably. While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate risk areas. Each method provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about an organism of concern. Overall, incorporation of risk aversion helps to refine the set of locations that could be confidently targeted for costly inspections and outreach activities.
- We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
- This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
- You may send email to email@example.com to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly
which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)
XML: View XML
Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H.; Ducey, Mark; Haack, Robert A. 2015. Towards reliable mapping of biosecurity risk: incorporating uncertainty and decision-makers’ risk aversion. Wallingford, UK: Biosecurity Surveillance Quantitative Approaches CABI Publishing. 12:217-237 21 p.
Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility