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Title: Tongass National Forest timber demand: projections for 2015 to 2030

Author: Daniels, Jean M.; Paruszkiewicz, Michael D.; Alexander, Susan J.;

Date: 2016

Source: Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-934. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 53 p.

Publication Series: General Technical Report (GTR)

Description: Projections of Alaska timber products output; the derived demand for logs, lumber, residues, and niche products; and timber harvest by owner were developed using a trend-based analysis. This is the fifth such analysis performed since 1990 to assist planners in meeting statutory requirements for estimating planning-cycle demand for timber from the Tongass National Forest. Results reflect the consequences of recent changes in Tongass forest policy, the Alaska forest sector, and trends in markets for Alaska products. Demand for Alaska national forest timber currently depends on markets for sawn wood and exports of softwood logs. Three scenarios are presented that display a range of possible future market conditions. The model was most sensitive to changes in Pacific Rim log demand. Areas of uncertainty include the prospect of continuing changes in markets and competition, the impact of the transition to young-growth timber, and the rates of investment in manufacturing in Alaska.

Keywords: Tongass National Forest, Alaska, forest sector models, lumber, young-growth transition, timber products output.

Publication Notes:

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  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
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Daniels, Jean M.; Paruszkiewicz, Michael D.; Alexander, Susan J. 2016. Tongass National Forest timber demand: projections for 2015 to 2030. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-934. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 53 p.

 


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