Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service

Research & Development Treesearch

Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help - We Participate  Government Made Easy

Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (1.0 MB byte)

Title: Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States

Author: Wang, Wen J.; He, Hong S.; Thompson, Frank R.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Dijak, William D.;

Date: 2016

Source: Landscape Ecology. 31:149-163.

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape- scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape modeling approach that incorporated three levels of spatial hierarchy (pixel, landtype, and ecological subsection) to model regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change. To determine (1) how importance value of individual species will change under the PCM B1 and GFDL A1FI modeling scenarios and (2) how overall forest composition at different spatial scales will change under these climate change scenarios in the short, medium, and long term in the Central Hardwood Forest Region (CHFR). We used LANDIS PRO to predict forest composition changes from 2000 to 2300 accounting for climate change, population dynamics, dispersal, and harvest in the CHFR. We analyzed forest composition shifts under alternative climate scenarios and at multiple spatial scales. Shifts in forest composition were greater under the GFDL A1FI than the PCM B1 modeling scenarios and were greatest at the scale of ecological sections followed by forest sub-regions and the whole CHFR. Forest composition shifted toward more southern and xeric species and lesser northern and mesic species. We suggest it is essential to include site- and landscape-scale processes in models and to evaluate changes at multiple spatial and temporal scales when evaluating changes in species composition due to climate change and disturbance.

Keywords: Abundance, Harvest, Succession, Demography, LANDIS PRO, U.S. Forest Service Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
  • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.



Wang, Wen J.; He, Hong S.; Thompson, Frank R., III; Fraser, Jacob S.; Dijak, William D. 2016. Landscape-and regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change in the Central Hardwood Region of the United States. Landscape Ecology. 31:149-163.


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.