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Title: Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change

Author: Buongiorno, Joseph.;

Date: 2016

Source: In:Baardsen, Sjur; Eid, Tron; Hoen, Hans Fredrik (eds.) 2016. Festschrift in honor of professors Ole Hofstad and Birger Solberg. - INA fagrapport 36. Norwegian University of Life Sciences.

Publication Series: Book Chapter

Description: This paper explored the potential long-term effects of a warming climate on the global wood sector, based on Way and Oren's synthesis (Tree Physiology 30,669-688) indicating positive responses of tree growth to higher temperature in boreal and temperative climates, and negative responses in the topics. Changes in forest productivity were introduced in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), using Way and Oren's equations in accord with the rising temperatures projected in teh IPCC scenario A1B, A2, and B2. Projections of the forest stock, production, prices, and trade of wood, and value added in industries were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario, with and without temperature changes from 2012 to 2065. In the three scenarios, the projected global growing stock of forests in 2065 was hardly changed by the rise in temperature.  However, the forest stock was 2% to 6% higher in the developed countries while it was 3% to 4% lower in developing countries.  There were significant attendant changes in wood production, prices, trade, and value added in forest industries benefiting developed countries and harming the developing countries.

Keywords: Climate change, wood supply, demand, prices, international trade

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Buongiorno, Joseph 2016. Global forest sector modeling: application to some impacts of climate change. In: Baardsen, Sjur; Eid, Tron; Hoen, Hans Fredrik (eds.) 2016. Festschrift in honor of professors Ole Hofstad and Birger Solberg. - INA fagrapport 36. Norwegian University of Life Sciences. 194 pp.

 


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