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Title: A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado

Author: Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.;

Date: 2016

Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF16073.

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Sharing fire engines and crews between fire suppression dispatch zones may help improve the utilisation of fire suppression resources. Using the Resource Ordering and Status System, the Predictive Services’ Fire Potential Outlooks and the Rocky Mountain Region Preparedness Levels from 2010 to 2013, we tested a simulation and optimisation procedure to transfer crews and engines between dispatch zones in Colorado (central United States) and into Colorado from out-of-state. We used this model to examine how resource transfers may be influenced by assignment shift length, resource demand prediction accuracy, resource drawdown restrictions and the compounding effects of resource shortages. Test results show that, in certain years, shortening the crew shift length from 14 days to 4 days doubles the yearly transport cost. Results also show that improving the accuracy in predicting daily resource demands decreases the engine and crew transport costs by up to 40%. Other test results show that relaxing resource drawdown restrictions could decrease resource transport costs and the reliance on out-of-state resources. The model-suggested assignments result in lower transport costs than did historical assignments.

Keywords: fire management, modelling, planning

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Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S. 2016. A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado. International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF16073.

 


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