Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (264.0 KB bytes)

Title: Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]

Author: Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael.;

Date: 2017

Source: In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.

Publication Series: Book Chapter

Description: Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range of decision‐support components, including fire behavior modeling, fire weather information, air quality and smoke management, economics, organization assessment, and risk assessment. Here we focus on WFDSS’s provision of probabilistic information and how it can facilitate strategic and tactical decision making. However, the management of active wildfire incidents can be highly complex and subject to multiple uncertainties, only some of which are addressed by WFDSS. We review remaining uncertainties, including identified issues in how fire managers interpret and apply probabilistic information, and conclude with observations and predictions for the future direction of risk‐based wildfire decision support.

Keywords: wildfire risk assessment, Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), management

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • You may send email to rmrspubrequest@fs.fed.us to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)

XML: View XML

Citation:


Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael. 2017. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.