Skip to page content
USDA Forest Service
  
Treesearch

Research & Development Treesearch

 
Treesearch Home
About Treesearch
Contact Us
Research & Development
Forest Products Lab
International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Northern
Pacific Northwest
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Southern Research Station
Help
 

Science.gov - We Participate


USA.gov  Government Made Easy


Global Forest Information Service

US Forest Service
P.O. Box 96090
Washington, D.C.
20090-6090

(202) 205-8333

You are here: Home / Search / Publication Information
Bookmark and Share

Publication Information

View PDF (4.0 MB bytes)

Title: The impact of climate change on the characteristics of the frost-free season over the contiguous USA as projected by the NARCCAP model ensembles

Author: Zhong, Shiyuan; Yu, Lejiang; Winkler, Julie A.; Tang, Ying; Heilman, Warren E.; Bian, Xiandi.;

Date: 2017

Source: Climate Research

Publication Series: Scientific Journal (JRNL)

Description: Understanding the impacts of climate change on frost-free seasons is key to designing effective adaptation strategies for ecosystem management and agricultural production. This study examines the potential changes in the frost-free season length between historical (1971−2000) and future (2041−2070) periods over the contiguous USA with a focus on spatial variability and the uncertainties surrounding the projections, using daily minimum temperature outputs from a 6-member ensemble composed of 3 regional-climate models nested within 3 general-circulation models provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Despite broad agreement among ensemble members on future advance (delay) of last spring (first autumn) frost and thus an increase in the frost-free season length across the USA, large inter-model spread, an indication of high uncertainties, exists especially over the mountainous West. The uncertainty surrounding the first autumn frost is the major contributor to the high uncertainty in the projected frost-free season length for the West, in contrast to other regions, especially the Great Plains, where the ensemble spread in the last spring frost contributes more to the season-length uncertainty. The lengthening is not symmetric in spring and autumn, and the asymmetry, which varies by region and model, is relatively small in the eastern and central USA, and large in the western USA. Across California and portions of the Southwest, the advance in the last spring frost will be more than the delay in the first autumn frost. Elsewhere in the western USA, especially over high terrain, the frost-free season will lengthen more in autumn than in spring.

Keywords: Frost-free season, Frost dates, Growing season, Climate change impact, NARCCAP, Ensemble projection

Publication Notes:

  • We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
  • This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
  • This publication may be available in hard copy. Check the Northern Research Station web site to request a printed copy of this publication.
  • Our on-line publications are scanned and captured using Adobe Acrobat. During the capture process some typographical errors may occur. Please contact Sharon Hobrla, shobrla@fs.fed.us if you notice any errors which make this publication unusable.

XML: View XML

Citation:


Zhong, Shiyuan; Yu, Lejiang; Winkler, Julie A.; Tang, Ying; Heilman, Warren E.; Bian, Xiandi. 2017. The impact of climate change on the characteristics of the frost-free season over the contiguous USA as projected by the NARCCAP model ensembles. Climate Research. 72(1): 53-72.

 


 [ Get Acrobat ]  Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

USDA logo which links to the department's national site. Forest Service logo which links to the agency's national site.